A Warning to Beef Buyers

Key Insights:

Weekly cattle slaughter from August through December 2025 is forecasted to run roughly 38,000 head lower than last year.
Elevated carcass weights are not enough to compensate for lower headcounts.
Expect constrained boxed beef supply and intensified competition for high-demand cuts this Fall.

2024 Was Hard to Navigate – 2025 Will be Much Harder

The beef industry is heading into Q4 with clear signals: lower headcount, elevated carcass weights, and deeper packer losses. From August through December, DecisionNext machine learning models are forecasting weekly slaughter to run roughly 38,000 head below 2024 levels, tightening supply and driving pricing pressure (Fig. 1).

Figure 1 – From Aug 1 through Dec 1 this year, weekly cattle slaughter is forecasted to run roughly 38,000 head below 2024 levels.

We’re not simply talking about herd contraction or routine seasonal volatility. We’re talking about a structural supply squeeze that will collide with year-end demand spikes—right when holiday ribs, loins, and tenders move to the center of the plate. The result? Shrinking availability, tighter margins, and a risk-prone spot market.

Elevated Carcass Weights Not Enough to Offset Depressed Beef Production

Average carcass weights have run above 2024 levels through the first eight months of 2025. Although the year-over-year spread will tighten over the next couple months, DecisionNext is forecasting that this trend of elevated carcass weights will continue through mid-December (Fig. 2).

Figure 2 – Dressed cattle weights in 2025 have been elevated over 2024 levels, a trend which is forecasted to continue through mid-December.

And yet, DecisionNext is forecasting that the U.S. beef market will see a steep year-over-year decline in total beef production to the tune of 24 million lbs per week through the end of the year (Fig. 3). From August 1st through December 1st last year, the industry harvested an average of 444.1 million lbs per week. According to the DecisionNext Machine Learning Model, the industry is forecasted to harvest an average of just over 420 million lbs per week over the same time period this year.

Figure 3 – DecisionNext is forecasting a 24 million lbs per week shortfall in total beef production from Aug1 – Dec 1 when compared with the same time period in 2024.

That’s not a rounding error. That’s just under 40,000 carcasses a week not making their way into the market from now through December.
While these stats may not register for the average American, consumers will certainly feel the impact at the cash register over the coming months. And for beef procurement professionals, these numbers signal one of the most critical shifts the market has seen in years.

Beef Buyers Beware

Despite the fact that average carcass weights are up, it is not enough to offset the total drop in headcount foreshadowing in a 20-million-plus pound per week year-over-year drop in total beef production from August through December this year.
Expect to see a tighter allocation of boxed beef going to a smaller set of buyers with strong contract relationships making for a more chaotic marketplace for everyone else. So whether you get the majority of your volume on formula contracts or rely on opportunistic spot buys, the message is the same: don’t wait. In today’s climate, you need to use forward-looking tools to plan earlier, source smarter, and protect your margins.