Key Insights:
- The Finished Goods Index has officially rolled over its base year from 2024 to 2025.
- Cheeseburger prices projected to rebound to 2025 highs by summer.
- Hot Dog index shows muted recovery into early summer.
- Chicken Sandwich forecast signals a spring rally after months of decline.
Figure 1 – With the Cheeseburger steady, the Hot Dog elevated, and the Fried Chicken Sandwich correcting sharply, DecisionNext now provides full cross-protein insight.
The Rollover to 2025 as the New Base Year
As the calendar flips to 2026, the DecisionNext Finished Goods Index (FGI) has completed its annual rollover, updating its base year from 2024 to 2025. This methodological update ensures ongoing analytical accuracy by benchmarking the index against the most recent full year of pricing data.
The DecisionNext Finished Goods Index calculates the value of a fixed basket of finished goods using current prices and compares those to a fixed base year. With the transition to 2026, we’ve updated the base year to reflect 2025 average prices—derived from approximately 48 weekly observations per product across the year.
Figure 2 – The equation used to calculate the DecisionNext Finished Goods Index, updated to reflect the new base year.
Additionally, we’ve refined the chicken sandwich calculation to more accurately reflect consumer-facing pricing. A pricing transformation has been applied to the bun input to correct for historically understated costs tied to flour market proxies. This adjustment, applied alongside the rollover, enhances the accuracy of our finished item estimate.
Finished Goods at a Glance: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook
The value of the Cheeseburger peaked at $1.16 in July 2025 and currently sits near $1.00 (Fig. 3). This climb was closely tied to rising costs in 50s and 90CL beef trims—trends that are highlighted in the September and October FGI reports. Looking ahead, cheeseburger prices are expected to steadily climb into mid-year 2026, potentially reaching parity with 2025 highs around $1.15, well above the 3-year average. Like last year, the primary driver for the increase in this finished goods cost is the projected rise in 90CL beef trim into the summer months.
Figure 3 – Cheeseburger price history and 6-month forecast
Hot Dog values followed a similar seasonal pattern in 2025, peaking at $0.41 in July before settling back to $0.31 by year-end (Fig. 4). Despite intermittent upward pressure from 50CL beef, abundant pork supply largely tempered finished good price growth. For the first half of 2026, pricing is forecasted to modestly rebound through spring, peaking around $0.34 in May before easing into early summer. Relative pork price softness continues to keep this index below mid-2025 highs.
Figure 4 – Hot Dog price history and 6-month forecast.
The Chicken Sandwich index experienced a spike in May 2025 that, while seasonally characteristic in timing, was uncharacteristic in magnitude—reaching $1.04 before dropping to $0.54 by October (Fig. 5). December’s report explored this volatility in depth, citing fluctuating chicken prices and incomplete input transformations. As we move into 2026, chicken sandwich values are forecast to stage a strong rally, climbing above $0.80 by June. This recovery is supported by seasonal poultry demand and the refined bun cost adjustment introduced during the rollover.
Figure 5 – Chicken Sandwich price history and 6-month forecast.
What It All Means For You
For stakeholders navigating pricing volatility and planning ahead for the coming year, the 2026 rollover isn’t just a technical update—it’s a refreshed benchmark that realigns analysis with today’s realities. With 2025 now serving as the new foundation, we gain sharper clarity into how costs are shifting across categories and what may lie ahead.
Cheeseburgers, hot dogs, and chicken sandwiches are moving in different directions, each shaped by distinct market forces—tightening beef trim supply, soft pork prices, and a resurgent poultry sector. The updated FGI structure reflects these dynamics more faithfully, particularly with the refined modeling of inputs like the chicken sandwich bun.
What sets the DecisionNext FGI apart is its unique recipe-based approach to forecasting finished goods, combining key ingredients across multiple commodity sectors into a unified pricing model. That breadth of coverage helps decision makers across the food and ag value chain understand not just what prices are doing, but why.
For those managing supply chains, setting menu prices, or planning promotions, the recalibrated FGI offers more accurate forecasts, better-aligned pricing strategies, and a clearer path forward. As always, DecisionNext will continue enhancing our methodologies to provide the insight and foresight you need to compete and thrive.
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About the Report
The DecisionNext Finished Goods Index showcases the value of multi-commodity finished goods cost forecasting across protein, dairy, grain, and ingredient markets (see full methodology page). By comparing the current value to the average value from 2024, it helps stakeholders visualize real-time and future cost pressures and profit opportunities across value-added food products. The tool makes it possible for users to forecast finished good costs, adjust recipes, and analyze forward-looking scenarios.
