Bread and rotisserie chicken prices are forecasted to drop year-over-year this October while hamburger and hot dog prices are forecasted to climb.

Also, be sure to check out the NEW Supermarket Rotisserie Chicken Index. We added this in-demand finished good offering to the report last month to round out our capabilities in the three major protein categories.

Finished Goods Forecast Indices – October 2022 – October 2023 (Fig. 1)

Figure 1 – DecisionNext finished goods indices for October 2023. To see last month’s index, click here.

The White Bread Index Deep Dive

For the fifth consecutive month, the White Bread Index has posted a year-over-year drop in input values. And this month, the inputs for bread and buns continue dropping with forecasted prices to be down nearly 30% compared to last October (Fig .2). (Check out the previous White Bread Deep Dive.) This price decrease is largely due to a dramatic fall in the forecasted price of wheat in October, 2023, versus the same time period last year.

Figure 2 – White bread loaf transaction alternatives comparing the forecasted cost of inputs in October, 2023 with the actual cost of inputs for the same period in 2022.

Supply and demand factors driving the White Bread Index

Domestic demand for wheat in 2023 has proven stagnant. What’s more, U.S. Hard Red Winter (HRW) exports are experiencing record-level lows not seen since 1973 (Fig. 3).

Figure 3 – U.S. wheat exports by class for the past ten years.

Back-to-back years of drought in the U.S. have significantly dented wheat yields, making imports from international players more attractive and exports less competitive. While production of White Wheat is down compared to last year, it hasn’t been as impacted by drought as HRW. 

In July of this year, U.S. wheat imports were at 23 million bushels, up 2% versus July of 2022. 

Key Takeaways

• The White Bread Index has shown a consistent drop in year-over-year price for the past five months, largely thanks to its main input cost: wheat. 
• Hamburger and hot dog prices are forecasted to be up in October ‘23 vs. YRAGO.
• White Bread and Rotisserie Chicken Indexes are forecasted to be down in October ‘23 vs. YRAGO.
• While export prices have declined over the past month, tighter global supplies could cause a rally over the coming months. 

About the Report

Overall, the DecisionNext Finished Goods Index Report showcases the flexibility of our tool’s range of solutions. It offers multi-commodity forecasting for all three major protein groups consolidated into a single finished goods forecast. The report also shows the ability to choose the timeframe for the forecast and the option to customize recipe templates to optimize finished goods profitability. 

*How the Indices are Calculated:

The index number for each finished good is calculated by taking the forecasted aggregate price for the inputs in for the upcoming month and dividing it by the historical aggregate price for those same inputs over the same time period last year. Essentially, we are using the tool to forecast the finished goods cost in a future month and then making the YoY comparison to the actual cost from the previous year. 

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